[关键词]
[摘要]
土壤有机碳( SOC)是陆地生态系统最大的活性碳库,其动态变化直接影响全球碳循环平衡、土壤肥力维持与生态系统服务功能,数学模型是揭示其数十年至百年尺度周转规律、评估碳汇效应的核心技术工具。本文系统综述了国内外 SOC模型的发展历程与应用现状,明确国外研究始于 20世纪 40年代, 20世纪 80 — 90年代形成 CANDY、Century、RothC、DNDC等 8个主流模型,其中 Century、RothC、DNDC模型应用最为广泛,各模型在结构复杂度、适用生态系统与核心功能上存在显著互补性;我国相关研究起步于 20世纪 80年代(首建 SCNC农田 SOC模型),2015年后进入快速发展期,现阶段以国际经典模型的本地化参数校准与情景模拟为主,同时在自主模型研发与多技术融合方面取得阶段性进展。对比分析表明, CANDY、Century、RothC模型可跨农田、草地、林地实现高精度长期模拟, DNDC在农业温室气体与 SOC耦合模拟方面具有不可替代的优势。当前 SOC模型已为我国“双碳”(碳达峰碳中和)目标下的农业碳汇核算提供重要技术支撑,未来需进一步完善模型结构、构建本土化参数体系、强化多源数据融合,全面提升模型的模拟精度与区域适用性。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest active carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems. Its dynamic changes directlyregulate the balance of the global carbon cycle, the maintenance of soil fertility, and ecosystem service functions. Mathematical modelsare core technical tools for revealing SOC turnover patterns over decadal to centennial scales and evaluating carbon sink effects. Thispaper systematically reviews the development history and application status of SOC models in China and abroad. International re.search began in the 1940s, and 8 mainstream models, including CANDY, Century, RothC, and DNDC, were developed during the1980s and 1990s. Among them, Century, RothC, and DNDC have been the most widely applied. These models show strong complemen.tarity in structural complexity, applicable ecosystems, and core functions. Research in China started in the 1980s, marked by the estab.lishment of the first SCNC farmland SOC model, and entered a stage of rapid development after 2015. At present, domestic studiesmainly focus on localized parameter calibration and scenario simulation based on internationally recognized classical models, whilephased progress has also been made in independent model development and multi-technology integration. Comparative analysis showsthat CANDY, Century, and RothC can achieve high-precision long-term simulations across cropland, grassland, and forestland ecosys.tems, whereas DNDC has irreplaceable advantages in coupled simulation of agricultural greenhouse gases and SOC. Current SOC mod.els have provided important technical support for agricultural carbon sink accounting under China's "dual carbon" goals. In the future,it is necessary to further improve model structures, establish localized parameter systems, and strengthen multi-source data integra.tion, thereby comprehensively enhancing model simulation accuracy and regional applicability.
[中图分类号]
S153.6
[基金项目]
甘肃省农业科学院重点研发计划( 2026GAAS21)。